Economic June News

G7 Economic Summit did not seem to yield much change. Trade talks were just that, talk. Action over the coming months will be far more telling. U.S. / China trade negotiations will be far more impactful. U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in May as expected. Even with the U.S. economy on track for improvements, economists are already calling for a recession in 2020. The Fed voted to maintain interest rates in today’s meeting. Job outlook for the UK financial services sector suggests job losses at a level comparable to 2009. Crucial votes in the House of Commons this week will determine the path of Brexit.
Stock index futures fell as the Trump administration announced that the U.S. will implement a 25% tariff on $50 billion of goods from China related to intellectual property and technology, and pledged to impose additional levies if China takes retaliatory steps China said it will immediately implement tariffs on the same scale as the U.S. U.S. dollar advanced to an 11-month high as, trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalate.
CBT pushed to new lows overnight, showing recovery at mid-session: Tariff talk continues to drag on sentiment and raise concern over U.S. exports, while crop weather remains near ideal. China is the US’s 2nd largest importer of agricultural goods at nearly $20B annually. In addition to China, Mexico, the US’s #3 importer, has also said potential tariffs on U.S. corn/soybeans are still in consideration should tensions continue to build.
Cumulative new crop US soybean export sales stand at 10.7% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5-yr. avg. of 14.6%; New crop corn sales at 6.2% of the USDA forecast vs. 5-yr. avg. 6.7%.
May NOPA soy crush expected at 165.1 mbu, a record for the month above the previous May high of 152.3 mbu in 2016; it would be up from 149.2 mbu last May and 161.0 mbu in April.