Geopolitical March News

A Russian military transport plane crashed in Syria yesterday killing all 39 on board. Initial data suggests a technical malfunction. Guatemala has announced plans to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in May. After weekend elections, German Chancellor Merkel will remain for a fourth term. Weekend elections in Italy show discontent with the status quo, but did not yield any decisive winners. North Korea has said it is now willing to discuss denuclearization with the US and South Korea. Sri Lanka has declared a state of emergency following days of violence in the Kandy region.
Market expects President Trump to move forward with tariff plan later this week and both Fed and a number of experts do not think the plan is in the best interest of our country and could ignite a trade war. The US trade deficit rose 5 percent, the highest mark since October 2008. January factory orders posted largest decline in six months. ECB is expected to take a dovish tone and will likely tread lightly as growing global insecurities weigh on market. IMF discouraging actions that could launch a global trade war where no one wins. Stock market fell today and some attributed that to the news that Trump’s chief economic advisor, Gary Cohn, is resigning
Some of the talk out of CERA week was Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s encouragement to energy leaders to embrace a new opportunity to grow in the current environment of fewer regulations, tax cuts, and improved technology. OPEC might be taking steps to solidify alliances with Russia and US shale producers to help prevent another major downturn in market values for crude. While distillate traded lower today, it was not able to hold on to all of that corrective move by the close today. Forward curve in HO is fairly flat now and does not support much storage activity. NE markets might be impacted by Colonial pipeline leak that has Line No 3 shut down.